Fudging the Numbers

Two simple questions become puzzling conundrums because of the incomplete information and assumptions based on what the evidence needs to say rather than what it actually says.

How many early Christians were there and how many of them were martyred? According to the now out of print World Christian Encyclopedia there were approximately 1 million Christians at the end of the first century. The W.E.C. is accepted by Christians as a reliable source for such information when it comes to contemporary figures but in this case the number seems more wishful thinking than reality.

Because they were aware that Christianity made up no more than a tiny fraction of the populace in the first century, in order to assert 1 million they need to establish a very large population number for the Roman Empire. They chose 185 million. This would allow them the comfort of both a very rapid explosion in growth (from 1 to 1 million in less than 70 years) plus alignment with the fact that 1st Century Christianity was no where near 1% of the population. The problem with this is that no historians make the Roman Empire this large. At best the population of the Roman Empire at the time was 60 million, but probably around 50 million. At its height in the second century it peaked at about 65 million after gobbling up more of Gaul and Eastern territories.

If the 1-185 ratio is accepted (although there is no particular reason to accept this) a more reasonable number of Christians would be about 270,000. This squares more closely with what evidence is known but is not nearly as impressive an indication of the explosive growth than Christian proponents have tried to depict.

The second question is even more difficult to resolve. How many Christians were actually martyred during this period? Edward Gibbon, in The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, estimates that "the whole might consequently amount to about fifteen hundred ... an annual consumption of 150 martyrs." Gibbon has traditionally been on the low side of these numbers but the reality is that there is little to no evidence to indicate that he was actually wrong.

The problem about the evidence arises because what has made it through history is highly questionable. Most comes from a small passage from the Roman historian Cornelius Tacitus which appears to have been altered by a later scribe. This is also not an unparalleled occurrence when it comes to notations about Christianity in non-Christian writing. The Jewish Historian Josephus almost surely had his writing altered to create a pro-Christian slant. There are few outside of the most diehard Christians , that hold that Josephus actually wrote the entire paragraph that refers to Christians, and certainly not the "good" parts. Nothing highlights their desperate need for corroborative evidence than does their clinging to the words of Josephus.

No writer other than Tacitus makes any reference to "a vast multitude" condemned and executed by Nero. In fact, the passage in Tacitus (Annals, Book XV, sec. 44) contradicts every other account of martyrdom recorded. In all other accounts of Christian martyrdom the authorities are reluctant to carry out the executions, giving the Christian numerous opportunities to recant and save his life. It is always the crowd that demands Christian blood. In Tacitus it is the other way around with the crowd feeling compassion for the "wrongly persecuted." Something does not make sense.

The numbers thrown around regarding the actual number of martyrs (from 0 to over 100,000) makes any estimate very difficult to posit with any assurance. The higher the number goes the more implausible it seems, given that the religious sect was still in its infancy, did not originate in Rome, and was not recorded as significant by any other writer, Christian or otherwise. Thanks to Christian scribal doctoring of the evidence even believers cannot make any assertions with any reliability. About the only thing certain about any of these numbers is that anyone who tries to assert an actual amount knows very little about the history of the Roman Empire, or Christianity, for that matter.